Tuesday, January 08, 2008

Thanks George!

Hard times have now arrived, due in large part to
1.) rising oil prices which have been skyrocketing because of the chaos in the middle east that our unlawful Iraq invasion has spawned;
2.) our failure to wean ourselves from a messy oil addiction; and
3.) an unregulated lending industry that made ridiculous mortgage loans that are now collapsing all over the country.

The feared recession in the US economy has already arrived, according to a report from Merrill Lynch.
It said that Friday's employment report, which sent shares tumbling worldwide, confirmed that the US is in the first month of a recession.
Its view is controversial, with banks such as Lehman Brothers disagreeing. An official ruling on whether the US is in recession is made by the National Bureau of Economic Research, but this decision may not come for two years.
The NBER defines a recession as "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months". It bases its assessment on final figures on employment, personal income, industrial production and sales activity in the manufacturing and retail sectors.
Merrill Lynch said that the figures showing the jobless rate hitting 5% in December were the final piece in that puzzle. "According to our analysis, this isn't even a forecast any more but is a present day reality," the report said.
It added that the current consensus view on Wall Street that there is a good chance of avoiding a recession is "in denial".


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