Wednesday, November 01, 2006

Cautiously Optimistic....

Experts are cautiously optimistic that we can perhaps put a spoke in the wheels of the bicycle ride know as the Bush presidency next week.....

WITH ONE WEEK TO GO, we are now calculating projections based on the average of the last three polls, a system that has worked well enough that at least two other polling operations have lifted it. In 2000, we were 3 points off in the national race and 4 points off in the state races. In 2004 we missed the national results by one point. Please note that we are listing Connecticut as uncertain given doubts as to how Joseph Lieberman would vote if, as is quite possible, he were to have the swing ballot on organizing the Senate.

The press isn't talking about this, but the Democratic gains are the first big turnaround in Congress since the disastrous 1994 elections in Clinton's first term. In other words, they are starting to recover from the Clinton years.

HOUSE - We project a gain of between 25 and 35 seats in the House, 10 to 20 more than needed for a majority.

SENATE - In the best case, the Democrat might take control of the Senate. They only lead in four new seats now with one of their own in doubt. If everything works out, they would still need defector Joseph Lieberman to vote for the Democrats in organizing the Senate. He says he will, but he has betrayed the Democrats once, running as an independent after losing the primary.


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